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Education · 2 mentions
#1993747535131726164
@JeffSnider_EDU "Treasury supply doesn’t matter" ... I've heard you say this before. Herein you add "the more the government fails at economics, the more demand there will be for Treasury assets". Trying to reconcile ... demand meets supply at the equilibrium price? So isn't yield the best indicator over/undersupply? Also ... if supply doesn't matter why does QE impact yields?
#1993723423315398774
Most of the Treasury rejection narrative stems from a deep misunderstanding of curves, interest rates, and basic economics. The thing is, it sounds like it SHOULD happen. The government is broke, the debt problem is getting worse, but you need to understand that ***isn’t*** a problem for the Treasury ***market***. It's a massive problem for you and me, the bigger the government gets. It’s a huge problem for the economy, because the more Treasury borrows and Uncle Sam spends the worse the economy performs (govt is waste and inefficiency, at best). And perversely, the more the government fails at economics, the more demand there will be for Treasury assets. Again, this isn’t the way we want it to go, but you have to accept this is how the market and the monetary world works. Treasury supply doesn’t matter and we have years, decades of proof showing you this. 2025 is another perfect example especially since everyone said this was going to be the year Treasury supply did matter. Spoiler alert: nope, it didn’t. The reason is depression economics and that’s the one key matter no one ever considers because they stupidly listen to the Fed and mainstream Economics when both are upside down and backwards on reality. https://t.co/BcGmeIfPBE